Ranking the Top 10 Quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL Draft
Let's try again next year.
I have not been kind to the 2026 QB class, and that was before I sat down to do final evaluations for this year’s top passers.
Well, that’s what I spent this past week doing, and let me tell you, it didn’t soften my stance on this group. If I were an NFL GM, this would be a one-quarterback class for me. I get the appeal of some of the others as lottery tickets on Day 3, and maybe one on Day 2, but overall, I’d be pretty out on this group until Round 4.
Still, there are many intriguing profiles. There are plenty of NFL tools to be had. It’s just a question of whether any of these players can be developed in an NFL environment.
Here’s how I’m stacking my QB rankings, with the caveat that I might circle back around to this group toward the end of the process, so I can watch some more names.
2026 NFL Draft QB Rankings
1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
I wrote a whole story about why Mendoza is my top quarterback in the class last week, so I’ll just pull from that.
“Mendoza is not the most exciting QB watch. Indiana ran through most of its schedule like a buzzsaw, and the offense does get a little repetitive at times.
However, any time Mendoza had to rise to the occasion, make an NFL throw, or read out a full-field concept, he answered the call. Combine that with his great accuracy profile at all three levels of the field, and you’ve got a solid NFL QB.
I wouldn’t compare him to Jared Goff stylistically, but I do think that general type of passer and success is where Mendoza will sit at the NFL level. He’ll have to win mostly from the pocket, and I don’t think he’s got the ceiling to be a top-five passer.
Still, there’s a lot of room between not top-five and definitely top 12 for Mendoza to operate. For a team picking at the top of the draft, that’s instantly worth the first-overall pick.”
Round Grade: 1st
2. Ty Simpson, Alabama
Simpson is an insanely frustrating watch. He got off to such a hot start before falling off a cliff in the second half of the season.
From Weeks 1 through 11, Simpson’s EPA per dropback was 0.32, and he threw 21 touchdowns to just one interception. In those games, Simpson showed impressive command of the Alabama offense — he called plays at the line, made protection adjustments, and made good decisions.
After Week 11 and into the College Football Playoff, Simpson’s EPA per dropback fell to -0.14, and he threw seven touchdowns and four interceptions in that window.
Simpson’s decision-making and already shaky accuracy took a nosedive, making it hard to trust him at the NFL level right away. He’s just a one-year starter, so there’s no bigger sample size to fall back on.
Simpson clearly has a good mind for the game, and his ability to hit tight windows at all three levels of the field shows enough promise to think he can be a solid starter at the NFL level. He’s also a decent enough mover to occasionally create out of structure.
That said, Simpson’s pocket management leaves a lot to be desired. He’ll create his own pressure, especially when the defensive line wins early in the game. He got rattled a few times, which isn’t surprising for a first-year starter.
I was hoping Simpson would return to school because the player that he was in the first half of the season was a potential first-round grade. He made some outrageous NFL throws and reads early in the season.
It’s just hard to trust a player with such a rough end of the season (against better competition) who also has only average tools. There’s a path for Simpson to be a solid starter, but I’d rather another team makes that bet.
Round Grade: 3rd
3. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Nussmeier’s decision to return to school after last season was clearly a mistake. His stock had gotten pretty high at different points last year, but I imagine he didn’t get Round 1 feedback.
Well, he definitely won’t get Round 1 feedback this year, and although I think he’ll go on Day 2, a fall to Day 3 wouldn’t shock me either.
Before getting into the tape, Nussmeier has size and injury concerns to consider. He came in at 6-1, 202 pounds in Mobile for the Senior Bowl, which is super rough. His weight lands in the fourth percentile among QBs at the combine since 1999.
That’s a problem because Nussmeier missed a lot of time due to injury last season, and he likes to stand in the pocket and take hits. I admire that, and it leads to some awesome middle-of-the-field anticipation throws, but I do worry about his longevity.
Moving on to the tape, Nussmeier’s father is an offensive coordinator for the Saints, and it’s easy to see how well the younger Nussmeier has been prepared because of it.
He had full command of the LSU offense pre-snap, and it’s clear he’s got an excellent understanding of how to read defenses before the snap. Most college QBs don’t have that, so it gives Nussmeier a nice floor.
He’s also an excellent anticipatory player in the middle of the field. He doesn’t have the best arm, but his tape is littered with line drives and touch throws into crowded windows — all high-level NFL throws.
He’s also got a nice touch on vertical routes, showing the ability to drop nine routes in the bucket along the sideline. Nussmeier’s toughness also pops, as he’s willing to take hits to deliver the ball.
My primary concerns with Nussmeier (besides his size) are how his play style aligns with his traits. Nussmeier has an underwhelming arm and isn’t a particularly good athlete. However, he’s constantly trying to push the ball into windows that aren’t open.
He also tries to create outside of structure when he should just navigate the pocket. His pressure-to-sack rate of 19% is a bit high because he thinks he’s more mobile than he is.
The cause of the former concern is that Nussmeier doesn’t check his work post-snap a lot. When defenses change the picture on him, he still tries to fit those MOF windows.
Nussmeier has the tools of a “game manager,” but he plays like a gunslinger. That disconnect, combined with his lackluster size, makes me skeptical he’ll carve out a long-term starting spot. However, the floor he could provide as a spot starter or primary backup is enticing.
Round Grade: 4th
4. Drew Allar, Penn State
I have done Drew Allar’s evaluation four times in the past two years, and every time I went in wanting to like him. You’re not supposed to do that, but I’m human.
Unfortunately, I just can’t get there with Allar, at least in the sense that I think he’s a high-level prospect. As a Day 3 lottery ticket? Sure, you can talk me into that still. Allar’s season-ending broken ankle, which he suffered against UCLA, doesn’t help his case.
I have two primary issues with Allar. For starters, he’s just not an accurate passer. There are easy misses littered all throughout his film. He’s not a fluid thrower, either. It constantly looks like he’s aiming the ball instead of letting it rip.
Those misses are hard to stomach because Allar has lived in the short area of the field. He doesn’t really push the ball vertically or hit too many deep middle-of-the-field shots.
For reference, Ty Simpson attempted 62 passes of 20+ air yards in 2025. Allar attempted 58 in 22 games across the 2024 and 2025 seasons.
Some of that is the fault of the Penn State offense — I’m not denying that. But Allar was the starter for 2.5 seasons. At a certain point, a decent amount of the blame has to land on his shoulders.
I appreciate Allar’s willingness to avoid sacks and turnovers by taking what the defense gives him and working the concepts in front of him. He’s just way too cautious, though, which is a problem when you’re not accurate in the short area of the field anyway.
This is also a problem because it runs in the face of Allar’s greatest strengths: his size and arm talent. Allar has a cannon, and he’s capable of accessing every blade of grass on the field. At 6-5, he’s more than capable of standing in and delivering, too.
He’s also a better athlete than you’d think. He can get outside the pocket and slide around inside the pocket well for a bigger passer. He has every physical trait you could ask for at the QB position.
Unfortunately, Allar hasn’t developed in a meaningful way despite 34 starts in college. He’s basically the opposite of Nussmeier. Allar has the tools of a gunslinger, but he plays like a game manager, and it’s a gigantic problem for his projection.
Round Grade: 4th
5. Cade Klubnik, Clemson
I had such high hopes for Klubnik coming into the season. I was encouraged by how well he played down the stretch for the Tigers in 2024 and was hoping he’d carry that momentum into a true breakout season.
That didn’t happen at all, as Klubnik regressed into his worst habits, and the entire Clemson football team fell flat. My issues with Klubnik start with his lack of accuracy. His placement in the short and intermediate areas of the field is highly erratic.
This becomes especially true when he’s faced with any kind of pressure. I appreciated some of the throws he made when escaping the pocket — he’s pretty good when getting out to his right. But his accuracy from muddy pockets is rough, and his pressure process is super rushed.
He got rattled this season a bunch, and Clemson didn’t seem to have much of a plan to give him solid options under pressure, either.
When Klubnik is kept clean, and he’s seeing the field well, he’s a more than capable passer. He’s got enough arm talent to access most areas of the field, can work through progressions, and will use his modest mobility to create extra plays.
I don’t know that he’s got the traits to ascend to a true starter, but he feels like a solid backup option with a year or two of seasoning. He’s got excellent touch on his throws, and he’s willing to push the ball downfield.
Klubnik was a letdown this season, but he’s still an NFL passer.
Round Grade: 4th
6. Taylen Green, Arkansas
I did not have high expectations heading into Green’s tape because I thought he was dreadful at the Senior Bowl this year.
I’ll give him this: His tape is better than what he showed in Mobile. My primary issue with Green is the same issue I have with a lot of passers in this class. He’s just not accurate.
There are some awesome flashes of downfield touch, precision in the middle of the field, and layered throws on the move. Those are the reasons he’s this “high” on the list, but on a down-to-down basis, Green misses way too many layups.
His throwing mechanics might be the worst in the class. I got to see his release up close in Mobile, and it was a tough watch at times. He’s got this super elongated release that’s made worse by the fact that he’s got long arms.
Green’s footwork is also all over the place, as he doesn’t consistently set his feet before his throws. This leads to a lot of his misses in the short area of the field on throws that are layups for other QBs in this class.
I also don’t think he’s an overly good decision-maker. I appreciate Green’s willingness to throw with anticipation in the middle of the field, but he doesn’t check his work post-snap. That led to a bunch of his INTs, especially considering how much he telegraphs his throws.
If you remove Green’s six-touchdown performance against Alabama A&M in Week 1, he threw 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this season. Plus, his turnover-worthy play rate of 5.3% isn’t great.
The last knock I have is that he’s dreadful under pressure. His ability to handle pressure in the pocket is almost nonexistent, and many of his worst decisions come when he tries to do so.
Setting all of that aside for a second, Green has the tools to be a high-caliber NFL passer. He’s 6-6, 235, has a boozka attached to his right shoulder, and is an exceptional athlete. He can reach all three areas of the field, and he does his best to do that consistently.
I understand liking Green as a lottery ticket, but you basically have to rebuild his entire mental and physical process. Green has four years of experience and never took “the jump.”
Why would it suddenly happen in the NFL?
Round Grade: 5th
7. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor
Robertson is a strange watch. He’s a really natural thrower of the football. The ball leaves his hand and explodes downfield. He’s got a somewhat crossfire motion, but it didn’t look awful up close at the Senior Bowl.
He’s also got a nice build at 6-4, 220, and decent arm talent to throw from multiple arm angles and generate good velocity.
However, he might be one of the most scattershot quarterbacks I watched this cycle. My big issue with Robertson is more placement than accuracy. He’s constantly making his receiver’s job hard by putting passes on the wrong shoulder or leading them into coverage.
He needs to get better at that in the quick game, which is especially disappointing because the Baylor offense is mostly based on quick-game concepts. He throws a lot of screens and manufactured touches.
Those can be an adventure, which is not something I love in a QB prospect. Robertson’s lack of general accuracy is a huge hurdle, but he showed a willingness to use the middle of the field, push the ball downfield, and go through progressions.
He’s pretty rough in the latter part, but Baylor’s offense gave him more chances to scan the field than I thought, and Robertson’s process wasn’t too bad, if not a little slow.
Ultimately, there are some reasons to select him on Day 3 and try to develop him. I just have a hard time getting excited about a QB prospect with his accuracy profile.
Round Grade: 5th
8. Carson Beck, Miami
I don’t have a ton to say about Beck these days. He was once a top-quarterback prospect at Georgia, but it’s pretty clear that ship has sailed and sunk to the bottom of the ocean.
He suffered a UCL injury at the end of the 2024 season, and his arm just didn’t look the same in 2025 while playing for Miami. He doesn’t have the velocity or arm elasticity to be a consistent starter at the NFL level or develop into one.
Limitations are kinda the name of the game for Beck. He’s not a good athlete, either, which makes it hard for him to make plays out of structure or avoid sacks in the pocket. He got away with some scrambles in college that I just don’t think will translate in the NFL.
What Beck does deserve credit for is improving his decision-making at Miami this past season. His turnover-worthy play percentage was never super high, but it dropped in 2025, and he was significantly more decisive with the Hurricanes.
Beck also shows general accuracy in the short game and a willingness to go through NFL reads in the middle of the field. He can’t quite access the deep windows needed to be a sustainable starter, but he can keep an offense on track for a short period of time.
You just have to keep him clean and give him clean looks. If he falls under pressure, his decision-making regresses, and he lacks the tools to create for himself.
That’s the profile of a long-term backup, which is where Beck lands on my board. Plenty of teams need those, and given what Beck looked like in 2024, that’s not an overly bad outcome.
Round Grade: 5th
9. Cole Payton, North Dakota State
Payton is a difficult profile for me to grade. He’s probably more accurate than some of the QBs I have ranked above him, and he made a surprising number of good downfield throws vs. man coverage.
That type of profile is usually something I gravitate toward with Day 3 QB prospects. I just couldn’t get there with Payton for a few reasons. The first is that I don’t love his arm strength. I’m used to watching lefties, so trust me, it’s not that.
The ball floats on Payton when he tries to push the ball downfield on a line. There was a far-hash corner route he threw in the final game of the season that exemplified this pretty well.
The second reason is that I don’t like Payton’s process a ton. I felt like he dropped his eyes to pressure way too often and would become a runner when there were opportunities to win with his arm. He’s an excellent runner, so I get the impulse, but that won’t fly in the NFL.
His pressure-to-sack rate of 19.6 is pretty high, and that’s because he doesn’t do a great job identifying and beating pressure before the snap.
Even when he’s kept clean, Payton turned down a bunch of easy reads in the quick game. NDSU’s offense is about as simple as it gets, and I don’t think he consistently reads out those concepts with the timing and accuracy that he should.
To his credit, Payton has some excellent touch throws littered throughout his film. He can really lay the ball up vertically and find layers in the defense over the middle of the field. Payton also had a bunch of pinpoint throws on vertical concepts vs. man coverage.
I get why Payton has fans, but a smaller school prospect with a lot of development needed just isn’t gonna excite me before Day 3.
Round Grade: 5th
10. Luke Altmyer, Illinois
Altmyer was one of the few quarterbacks who actually stood out on Senior Bowl film this year. I felt like he was the most consistent passer at the event, so I had a glimmer of hope that his tape would be solid.
While Altmyer’s tape isn’t truly terrible, his combination of poor placement and lackluster traits makes him a late Day 3 prospect. He’s just way too scattershot with his placement in the short area of the field.
Illinois runs a lot of RPOs, and Altmyer made his receivers’ lives way harder than they needed to be. Plus, he doesn’t really have the arm strength to push tight windows in the middle of the field or on vertical concepts.
He’s 6-1, 212 pounds, which isn’t too small, but I’d hardly call him a bigger QB, either. His mobility is pretty limited, and he doesn’t handle pressure all that well.
To his credit, Altmyer is generally accurate — he gives his receivers a chance, and he’s got a decent amount of experience at the college level. It wouldn’t shock me at all if he stuck around on the backend of a depth chart for a while and even worked his way into a long-term QB2.
I just don’t see a ceiling higher than that in his game, so it’s hard for me to slot him above players who have a better outlook.
Round Grade: 6th
This is fantastic. Thank you! Especially regarding Allar. He is so traitsy. I kept waiting for a "Roethlisberger lite". But as you said, the skills just never really developed.
A few things that always stuck with me.
First, he was horrendous against top teams. With smaller windows, he became insanely cautious. Did he trust his accuracy? Was he processing OK? Was it all just a little too fast?
Also, the common theme among PSU fans, and others, was that their wideouts were subpar. Sure, they didn't have a scary WR room like Ohio State, but plenty good enough.
Keandre Lambert Smith went to Auburn after a couple years at PSU with Allar. In his '24 season with the Tigers, KLS was just shy of 20 ypc and 1,000 total receiving yards in the SEC.
At PSU in 2024, Julian Fleming was added from the Buckeyes. A big get. But he ended the season with 14 catches in 16 games. In their playoff loss to Notre Dame, PSU was the only school outside of the military academies to finish a game without a completed pass to a wideout. That is nuts!
Then, going into the 2025 season, Penn State was universally considered a serious threat for the title. Allar, a top QB with early round NFL draft expectations. Yet both WR1 (Harrison Wallace) and WR2 (Omari Evans) transfer out. Why would your top WRs leave? And similar to KLS, Wallace went to Ole Miss and led them in receptions and yards.
The tight ends! They were phenomenal. Especially Warren. I'm sure they attracted more attention in coverage, which makes the lack of WR production even more puzzling.
The offensive line was always good.
Two insanely productive running backs.
And finally, he had an extremely creative OC. Now, one can argue that Kotelnicky's offense didn't do Allar any favors for pro development. But they stacked lots of production on play design alone.
So, he had great advantages, and underwhelmed. What happens when he is on an average NFL team, without advantages, and is asked to elevate his team's play?
I expect there are plenty of NFL coaches who see his traits and will gladly roll the dice on their ability to fix him.
I took an extremely long route to say, "I completely agree".
Very quick question. What are your thoughts on Gronowski from South Dakota State via Iowa. I've liked what very little I've seen, but I I'm torn on any kind of evaluation because I didn't see a lot of WRs on Iowa and SDS is a lesser level of competition. I'm curious for other people's opinions.