Defending Why I'm Lower Than Consensus On Potential Top 2025 Draft Prospects
I woke up extra early just to be a hater.
Being wrong is a part of this process. If you’re writing about the draft and never miss on players, you’re not taking enough chances.
There’s a fine line between being stubborn and confident in your evaluations, but either way, you shouldn’t line up with consensus on every prospect. Last week, I covered the players I’m probably higher on than consensus — The All-Hollywood Team.
This week, we’re flipping the script to look at five players I’m lower than the consensus on. This is not an exercise to dump on these players, but instead, an opportunity for me to defend what could end up being huge misses.
For the consensus rankings, I’ve used The Athletic’s and MockDraftDatabase’s boards. Most of the rankings are pretty similar, but it gives a little more of a consensus among the consensus.
Jalon Walker, EDGE/LB, Georgia
Consensus Board: 10th, 11th
My Board: 27th
I’ve written about my hesitation with Walker’s skill set before, but he’s the highest-ranked consensus player on whom I’m way different.
Simply, I’m a little less convinced about him being a full-time edge player at the next level. Most analysts are confident in his ability to line up on the ball and beat NFL-caliber tackles right away. Walker’s pass-rush tape is quite good, so I understand the impulse.
However, Walker’s 6-foot-1, 243-pound frame is incredibly small for an on-ball player, and his 32-inch arms rank in the sixth percentile for edge rushers, according to MockDraftable. His measurements look much better if projected to an off-ball linebacker roll, but Walker’s tape there is much worse.
So, I have a player who is outlier small where his tape is best, but a good size for a position where his tape is worse. As much as I like Walker’s overall athletic ability, physicality, and versatility, not having a home base position worries me.
If he goes to the right team, this will be less of an issue. If you told me the Buccaneers would take him 19, I’d feel a lot better about all of these concerns because Todd Bowles has experience working with and getting the best out of hybrid players.
However, I cannot get behind a player with those caveats ranking near the top 10.
Azareye'h Thomas, CB, Florida State
Consensus Board: 39th, 40th
My Board: 56th
I’m not too far off from the consensus on Thomas, but I’ve seen many analysts slot him into the first round of mock drafts, and that’s way too rich for my blood.
Thomas is definitely my type at the position. He’s tall, long, and physical, especially when playing in press at the line of scrimmage. He will beat up receivers before they can even get into their routes and overwhelm them at the catch point with his length.
However, Thomas also checks the box on one of my biggest pet peeves for a cornerback — his ball skills are super underwhelming. Thomas’ 14 pass breakups in the past two seasons are fine, but he only has one interception during that span.
He’s around the ball a lot because he’s so physical with receivers, so this is a player who is not maximizing his opportunities. He doesn’t get his head around consistently, and he’s much more worried about hand-fighting with receivers than trying to take the ball away.
Thomas also ran pretty slow at his pro day, as The Athletic’s Dane Brugler reported Thomas was timed at somewhere between 4.56 and 4.60. Neither time is great, but I’m less concerned with his speed, given his other great movement skills.
I like Thomas, but the fringe first-round hype is a little too much for me.
Jack Sawyer, EDGE, Ohio State
Consensus Board: 54th, 53rd
My Board: 88th
Sawyer is the first player on this list where I don’t understand the consensus ranking at all. You can talk me into Jalon Walker and Azareye'h Thomas going at their consensus rankings, but Sawyer is not close to a top-50 player in this class to me.
He is a solid power rusher who was effective against the run at Ohio State. That gives him a high enough floor to be a top-100 pick, but he lacks the athletic profile of a pass rusher who should go near the top 50.
This is especially true in a class with many talented pass rushers. I’ve watched 24 edge rushers and have at least a fourth-round grade on all of them.
My other concern with Sawyer is his length. His 31¾-inch arms rank in the fourth percentile, which will make it hard for him to maintain his high-caliber run defense at the NFL level.
A player with Sawyer’s lack of burst and length is not one I’m interested in betting on near the top 50.
Deone Walker, IDL, Kentucky
Consensus Board: 78th, 81st
My Board: 139th
Walker is probably the player I’m the most different on than the consensus, and it’s been that way for a while. I had a late first-round grade on Walker coming out of summer scouting, but he started falling down the board the second Kentucky started playing SEC opponents.
Walker’s 2024 tape is rough. Here’s a blurb from my final report:
“The best way to describe Walker is that he’s built like Jordan Davis but plays like Jalen Carter — not in a good way. Walker wants to win with speed and avoid contact, which just isn’t a reliable game plan for a player of his stature. He gets moved off the ball way too much in the running game and is constantly washed out of plays trying to get upfield instead of just stacking and shedding.
It’s an infuriating watch because Walker is a good athlete for his size, and his splash plays against the run and pass are quite impressive. However, making a 6-foot-6, 350-pound player a designated pass rusher is just not remotely appealing.”
I wrote that before heading down to Mobile, Alabama, to watch Walker in the Senior Bowl, and my mind remained unchanged after that event. Walker spent the entire week struggling with pad level and getting stonewalled by smaller offensive linemen.
A recent report said Walker was playing all of 2024 with a back injury, which could explain why his tape took a nose dive. However, that opens up a whole different can of concerns.
Walker was 6-foot-7, 331 pounds at the NFL Combine, which is good for the 99th percentile and 91st percentile, respectively. That is a huge frame to have to carry on a back that isn’t 100 percent healthy.
Frankly, I would’ve preferred it if Walker just had a drop in play because he struggled a bit this season. A back injury for a player of his stature is incredibly troubling.
Walker still has his patented flashes of athleticism and power when rushing the passer. There’s a version of history where he slims down a bit and becomes a problem as a designated pass rusher. Or perhaps he will finally become the run stuffer he should be with some NFL coaching.
I just don’t think either of those outcomes is likely.